What is the future of Twitter? As of this writing, Twitter’s explosive growth has come to a screeching halt. Meanwhile, other factors imply that the existing numbers do not represent as much substance as one might expect.
Something like ten percent of Twitter users produce ninety percent of the tweets (per a Harvard study), and something like sixty percent of users never return after their first thirty days. These two factors alone suggest the numerical impact of Twitter is far less than in the media hype.
Further, Twitter’s business-friendly policy and strong showing in peak earning-year age brackets have lent themselves to business-oriented tweets. Twitter policy and automation by users has led to a more liberal use of self-serving or business-oriented tweets than the non-tweeting majority may care to digest.
I generally assume that users who merely view tweets without engaging themselves further will soon lose interest or their commitment will be haphazard.
Of course, many do happily use Twitter socially or for specific and limited purposes, and the business uses of Twitter have proven to be an economic boon in these hard times. One-time users may return, and layoffs may drive more to the kinds of self-employment in which Twitter is helpful. But I expect the gross number of users will decline in coming months to some more realistic level, and perhaps more so when Google Wave arrives.
Twitter is a great tool, but it may be advisable not to make it one’s only marketing tool.
Peter Rubel
P.S. If Twitter is merged with Facebook or Google Wave, its attractiveness may be greater or more secure.
Tags: marketing, Social Media, tweeting, Twitter
