They start with this little nugget, “State of the Internet … Mobile internet will be bigger than desktop internet within 5 years.”

One graph shows internet usage via mobile phone surpassing desktop use within a couple of years, with the gap only growing after that. And Dan Hollings of Stompernet notes on average mobile phone users of the internet are three times more likely to buy than desktop users while Jack Dorsey of The Square reports processing US$3 million in mobile payments PER DAY.

Meanwhile the Google Adwords Keyword Tool has multiple mobile phone search options and information marketing giant Clickbank offers to tailor offers for mobile phones. At least one web host, Hostpapa, offers software to convert existing desktop-friendly pages into mobile phone friendly ones, even sensing device type and tailoring to each.

Of course the trends actually appear more wrinkled and nuanced than at first blush. Purchases via mobile phone tend to run under $5 and iPhone users tend to be on the internet around 9 percent of the time–much of it watching video–while using a mobile phone versus around 3 percent for other mobile phones. Mobile phone users of the internet also tend to browse far fewer pages than desktop users, presumably partly because of on-the-go distractions and the difficulties (so far) of cumbersome pages never designed for mobile phone sized screens and capabilities.

Mobile phones have already been put to good use for local “instant gratification” markets as Hollings notes. Imagine hungry students or business people searching via mobile phone for the nearest pizza joint or likely lunch spot. Below-cost offers get them in the door. Foursquare, and now Facebook.com/places, specialize in linking people where they are with the nearest available thing for which the are looking.

Indeed in 2010, Google said local intent is behind one third of mobile searches.

But what about online affiliates of health supplement companies, of information products, Amazon, retail brands, or even MLM recruiting and sales? On the whole I see two things.

One, affiliate marketers and MLM folks with an online presence are not without existing assets that could be used in reaching mobile phone users. Two, my wet-finger-to-the-wind assessment of the moment is (and has been) that the trends in mobile phone use of the internet are outstripping the response of online affiliate marketers and MLM folks with an internet presence. We are behind the times.

As of this writing, a Google search in quotes of the long tail phrase “affiliate marketing with cell phones” yields all of 8 competing pages. A search for “affiliate marketing with mobile phones” yields zero results.

Of course this is not the whole story. But in any case, a few practical possibilities come to mind.

One, one can purchase services such as Hostpapa provides to convert websites to mobile-friendly formats when a mobile search is detected or set up mobile-only pages, perhaps including the recent “.mobi” extension. Among other things, this probably requires tweet-sized messages for highly targeted audiences and the simplest and easiest point-and-click means of purchase and delivery (or use of 800 numbers) for the types of products that are popular among such customers.

Second, one can use social media with mobile users in mind–not perhaps to pitch and close a sale, but to engage and gain recognition and trust.

Third, we can change business models somewhat to seek to gain our bread and butter via local means, performing online marketing services in affiliation with chiropractors, dentists, local retail store owners, real estate agents, and so on in our local neighborhoods. Netspaceprofits (with which I am affiliated) offers training and resources in such a model.

And since the trend is still relatively new in the US and many part of the world (albeit more developed in Japan), more practical means of reaching mobile customers will no doubt come to the fore … as ad competition increases.

A little while ago, I listened to a Stompernet webinar featuring economic forecaster Harry Dent. One thing caught my attention in particular.

Dent’s economic indicator graphs and demographic figures painted a picture of the next several years or more very reminiscent of the imagery mapped out by Elliott Wave theorists like Robert Prechter.

Granted, the two sides look at a lot of similar data and use mathematical magic too dizzying for my eye, but Dent’s rock bottom foundation seems to be demographics, whereas Elliott et al. base their theory on mass psychology. Yet their respective projections are alike.

OK. My crystal ball ain’t so crystal, and both camps could be wrong, but at present, I’m buying the forecast they’re selling. We are headed for a deflationary depression deeper and wider than in the 1930s.

There. I’ve just identified the elephant. Some may yawn and mutter “can’t-be-worse-than.” And power-of-positive-thinking gurus may stop their ears. We’ve done well hitherto and we cannot be wrong now.

For copywriters and online sellers in a very real sense, I think the elephant represents a paradigm shift.

Buying habits are going to change big time for a long time.

It isn’t that the fundamentals of human psychology are changing or that the copywriting principles of catering to emotional benefits changes. Its the emotions themselves. En masse.

To borrow from Elliott, mass mood drives market. We humans feel as herds, stampeding toward optimism or pessimism, hope (e.g., greed) or fear, acceptance or distrust, risk-taking or security, toleration or anger, what makes bright colors trendy or subdued colors. Positive moods characterize and dominate bull markets. Negative ones the bears.

None of this denies individual or cultural differences. But both Dent and the Elliott folks are talking about a largely global bear market for our imminent future.

The headlines, the calls to action, benefits, and products that hit the sweet spot in all of living memory may instead strike a sour note to the customer just over the horizon of tomorrow. Or the reasons why customers buy product “X” will change. And so should the copy.

Of course we’ve recently come off the largest and longest bull market in all of recorded economic history in a time of explosive population growth. Bull market euphoria still lingers and reverberates in the herd. And bulls and bears, up moods and down moods, swing in big and little ways in overlapping fractal patterns.

But in a big way, it will take time–years–to reach the final bottom before coming back up. Its just that the lemmings are headed for a cliff.

Granted, most readers are not all the way down the sales funnel on buying these forecasts. They think there may be an elephant in the room, but it must be a small elephant … even though the signs of what’s coming are here, like debt, unemployment, M3 shrinkage in the US dollar, and massive speculative building in China.

In any event, many may lean toward hedging their online betting. In the US, affiliates and providers of products and services with perceived health benefits to aging baby boomers will be more likely to find a hungry market … as Dent reminds us. But luxury products will probably decline in popularity. Ostentation will be out.

Dent went on to suggest services that help debtors reduce their interest rates or overall debt. Or I might add that home security devices are more likely to scratch the bear market itch. Online marketing trainers may be advised to accent the security of an added income stream rather than the blue water and bikini lifestyle it may afford. Popular clothing style will show less skin and be more color-neutral.

Calming beverages may be more popular than energy-boosting drinks … even sugar is less popular in bear markets. Stress management ideas may gain a new edginess. Local (whether geographical or not) may be trusted more than what’s outside the circled wagons. Trust may be harder to earn and easier to lose. The ideal dating mate of 2012 may look and feel less hot, but more solidly reliable.

What would a copywriter write if banks started going bankrupt … all over? What do people want who are losing their homes in foreclosure? If a person can’t afford college, what alternative training can one offer to enable her to reach her goals? How will people want to entertain themselves when they are angry or afraid? What kind of music will they like?

The niche markets we choose to enter today will ideally anticipate tomorrow’s mass moods. The emotional hot buttons we push in our copy will too.

Believe me, I hope the forecast is wrong. And when marketing to stampeding humanity, it is best to think like them. They are not terribly bearish yet. But sometimes entrepreneurs must stick their heads above the herd to see where we’re headed.

And although videos are being downloaded online in hefty numbers, competitiveness for many keywords is not (yet) as stiff as in text-based media. “Tags” to videos in YouTube function as keywords. Other than traditional keyword research, tags can be chosen because they duplicate those of successful/popular videos covering the same or similar topics to one’s own.

Here I suggest procedures for constructing a simple video using a MS Power Point slide show and adding narration in MS Movie Maker. Slides work best when simple (not dense and verbose) and visually appealing.

1. Starting in Power Point, choose a slide design under “Format.” When done with the first slide go to “Insert” to add a “new slide” … and so on.

2. For purposes of making a video out of the slide show in MS Movie Maker, each slide must not be saved as a “.ppt” (power point) document; saving as a “.jpeg” works.

3. After you have completed constructing the slide show and saved each slide as a “.jpeg,” open MS Movie Maker and import the whole slide show into “Collections.”

4. Click and drag the slide from “Collections” into the “Story Board” section of MS Movie Maker. Then switch from “Story Board” to “Timeline” view.

5. Click on your first slide in the Timeline, and stretch your first slide to some reasonable length of time, a little over what you anticipate the audio time to be. Record your presentation for the first slide from a selected microphone or other connected audio recording device.

6. After recording the audio for the first slide, note the disparity in length of time between the audio and the slide. Click on and drag the first slide in the Timeline to match the time length of the audio for the same first slide. The length should be the same for slide as for audio.

Repeat process with the second slide with audio until the end of the presentation.

7. Save the MS Movie Maker presentation as a movie in “WMV” format to your computer. This may take a little while.

8. Upload your video onto YouTube. Note other sites for uploading on Tubemogul (each site has its own formatting and other requirements).

YouTube videos must be informative or entertaining, not mere sales pitches, must be less than 100 MB and not more than 10 minutes in length (barring special arrangement). Statistics also suggest the majority of viewers drop off after the first 30 seconds, one minute, three minutes, etc. The relevance of tags and titles to video content, engaging content, and brevity are recommended. Of course a targeted audience is more likely to watch for longer periods.

On YouTube in present configurations, the first 122 characters of the description are viewable without clicking for more. Putting a relevant link within those 122 characters should be standard procedure for marketing purposes.

The government in Korea divvies out tax dollars for kids to attend internet rehabilitation camps. Many are addicted to online gaming to the extent that their family life and school performance suffer. To them, the “psychedelic” virtual world is a trip more colorful and worthwhile than the drab real world.

Crème de la Crème multiple multitasking students from MIT have a high regard for their own ability to, say, text message multiple friends while reading and writing to multiple email partners while playing a video game while listening to a lecture on physics while googling on their laptop to answer some question that popped into mind.

But testing–surprise!– shows they are can’t do all that very well. The distractions kill the focus and concentration necessary to do a decent job at any one thing. There is nothing new to that problem with multitasking, and nothing new to the euphoria and belief that one can multitask well. Its just that the problem is more intense now, more distracting, more fragmented with widely available–yeah, ubiquitous– internet devices and access than before. Take laptops and smartphones and the iPad.

So when even the best students try to write a lengthy essay on a single well-developed theme, they come up with pithy, insightful little paragraphs that have little to do with each other … unlike their parents, who did better with that sort of thing pre-PC. Or better at reading a lengthy book.

Of course the news isn’t all bad. One bottom-of-the-barrel school Frontline investigated introduced onscreen and online learning, and the behavior and test scores shot dramatically in the right direction, at least on some measures.

Virtual reality games with multiple players in the same game may help bridge the social gap that technology had formerly widened. To save travel money and hassles, businesses are holding multinational online meetings and online project collaboration where the participants may work together closely for years, but never meet each other face to face. Who needs to go out to lunch with a friend when you can see, talk, and write to each other so easily online from separate places on the planet?

Not to mention all the other things we accomplish and benefits we receive with the internet and our techie devices.

So where is this all going? Are we really serving the next generation by giving them iPhones and laptops? Well, it looks like there will be losses as well as gains. And it looks as if our technology is remaking how we think and how we relate to each other if not exactly what we think about what is real.

I still think, though, that we need to understand better how our technology is changing what our subconscious mind believes. A young child, Frontline illustrated, could not tell that his experience swimming with whales was virtual rather than real. Our subconscious minds (or pieces of it) are like that even in adulthood. People who eat virtual food while wearing those goggle things over their eyes feel full in the stomach even though they have not eaten any real food. We are using our technology to program ourselves.

And when we grow up, we are going to have to learn to make severe use the “off” button during our workday to focus on making our contribution to business.

Note also a wrinkle. Gartner noted that globally in 2009 versus 2008, mobile phone sales flattened worldwide while smartphone sales, still a fraction of mobile phones, rose dramatically–24%–to reach a total of 14% of mobile handset sales for the year.

In other words, the wave has begun. Competition among smartphone manufacturers is stiff, putting deflationary pressures on prices. More affordable smartphones will drive sales up. Dan Hollings of Stompermobile (that’s Dan in above the picture) finds that click through rates are ridiculously high (and advertising costs relatively cheap), as if smartphones today were like the internet of the 1990′s. The wild west is open for business … again.

However, there are protocols for smartphone ads. Double opt-ins are required for list building, at least in the US. Social media generally works best when you add value to the social conversation and don’t lead with a “for me” sales pitch … like spam. Expect short attention spans to be even shorter for users of smartphones. After a relationship has been built and buying takes place, the buying process should be quick and easy.

Further, screen size dictates short messages, like Twitter. Links should be shortened such as one sees from bit.ly or tinyurl.com. And websites built for desk top or lap top screens are not ideal for smartphone size, so web developers are going to have new tasks in modification … although it would be nice now to have your Facebook fans see your status updates while they are out and about!

Another trend, using online technology for local business, can also use smartphones. One application, Foursquare, particularly caters to geotagging and local (but not only local) marketing with mobile phones.

In summary, smartphone sales and the use of smartphones on Facebook and Twitter suggest a new trend integrating smartphones and social media in marketing is in its early stages.

P.S. A no-doubt growing list of sites similar to Foursquare includes: gowalla, dopplr, plancast, brightkite, and tripit.

In this 23 November 2009 video, Elliott Wave adherent Robert Prechter takes the minority position that the “2008-type” recession is not over and that the US dollar’s near-term future looks bullish.

For more on the economic theory, see economic trends.

On November 16, 2009–and after years of preparation–ICANN will launch its fast track process for international domain names, so that web users whose native tongue is not English or who do not use characters from Romance (Latin-based) languages can use domain names using their own Korean, Arabic, Chinese, Russian, Hindi, or other characters.

The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers or ICANN has served to establish policies regarding domain names on the internet.

If we take a forthcoming deflationary depression as a foregone conclusion, how do we succeed in business while in a depression?

If I am not going out on a limb to predict a depression, I would be to predict a likely scenario for many things. I do not know which institutions will go bankrupt and whether the dollar will fail, for example.

I can say that Americans have already taken action under changed circumstances, as is no doubt true elsewhere. Things like reducing expenses, delays in having children, and working until older. These changes can only become more common in the near future, but for many, they will not prove sufficient. More fundamental and sweeping changes in expectations must occur.

For a period, we will not know what to expect in an alarmingly worsening market. We will have fewer options when accident or illness strike. More emotional stress over debt, more fear of spending, greater difficulty gaining trust, more competition for customers, fewer business and educational opportunities, more losses of homes, careers, cars.

In the 1930s, the US looked in substantial measure to government credit for relief, but government credit is tapped out now in the US. There is much truth in claiming that government does not create wealth, at best it only provides a milieu in which private citizens can create wealth.

Government functions by siphoning wealth off of private citizens. And when the income of private citizens drops, government revenues drop with them. Less money for welfare. Less money for social security. Less money for schools, roads, health, public transportation, education and research grants, farm subsidies, and so on.

Of course, the changes will present new opportunities for business. Many products and services are geared toward customer tastes under bull market expectations. In a bear market, many will develop new expectations and tastes for bear market products and services.

In comparison to the bull market, many will have even stronger unmet desires, but less money to buy. It would be a mistake to focus on price alone, although a preponderance of credit card spending will likely yield to cash and debit card spending.

Economic pain and job scarcity will likely motivate more to take risks associated with self-employment and entrepreneurship. More desperate people will also try their hand at scamming others. Skepticism toward too-good-to-be-true opportunities can only increase. But the entrepreneurs who provide innovative solutions will do well.

In general, those businesses which helpfully address people’s fears will probably find the readiest markets. If not a wild income, at least a small, steady one. If not the hope of elective surgery, at least the assurance of lower risk. If not quiet private homes, at least close proximity to opportunity. If not the convenience of debt spending, at least a secure investment. If not time saving outsourcing and automation, at least an affordable do-it-yourself. If not the vanity of flaunting, at least the value of floating.

Success itself will be redefined. And yesterday is the time to think about what it will be.

“Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution” So begins a brief Socialnomics video densely packed with important statistics regarding the social media revolution.

For example, by 2010 in the US, there will be more Generation Y people than baby boomers, and 96% of them have joined a social network site. Or how about this: “80% of companies are using LinkedIn as their primary tool to find employees.”

Of course, to those already sold on the importance of social media for business, the major question is how to go about using it. The video itself suggests helping people in a friendly way works best. I found the video embedded in an excellent Michel Fortin blog post, where he suggests among other things, “add an element of curiosity, scarcity, or controversy.”

One other thing. I had to stop the video frequently to absorb the fly-by statistics. This may have been tedious, but I think you will find doing this worthwhile if you are like me.

Peter Rubel

Hans Rosling of http://www.gapminder.org/ provides user friendly statistics for a growing variety of important global matters. We use the above as an introduction to Rosling’s work because it is helpful and entertaining for marketers and business people wanting to understand the big picture and where we are going.