I am surprised I have not seen any copywriter or niche marketing discussion on the elephant in the room.
A little while ago, I listened to a Stompernet webinar featuring economic forecaster Harry Dent. One thing caught my attention in particular.
Dent’s economic indicator graphs and demographic figures painted a picture of the next several years or more very reminiscent of the imagery mapped out by Elliott Wave theorists like Robert Prechter.
Granted, the two sides look at a lot of similar data and use mathematical magic too dizzying for my eye, but Dent’s rock bottom foundation seems to be demographics, whereas Elliott et al. base their theory on mass psychology. Yet their respective projections are alike.
OK. My crystal ball ain’t so crystal, and both camps could be wrong, but at present, I’m buying the forecast they’re selling. We are headed for a deflationary depression deeper and wider than in the 1930s.
There. I’ve just identified the elephant. Some may yawn and mutter “can’t-be-worse-than.” And power-of-positive-thinking gurus may stop their ears. We’ve done well hitherto and we cannot be wrong now.
For copywriters and online sellers in a very real sense, I think the elephant represents a paradigm shift.
Buying habits are going to change big time for a long time.
It isn’t that the fundamentals of human psychology are changing or that the copywriting principles of catering to emotional benefits changes. Its the emotions themselves. En masse.
To borrow from Elliott, mass mood drives market. We humans feel as herds, stampeding toward optimism or pessimism, hope (e.g., greed) or fear, acceptance or distrust, risk-taking or security, toleration or anger, what makes bright colors trendy or subdued colors. Positive moods characterize and dominate bull markets. Negative ones the bears.
None of this denies individual or cultural differences. But both Dent and the Elliott folks are talking about a largely global bear market for our imminent future.
The headlines, the calls to action, benefits, and products that hit the sweet spot in all of living memory may instead strike a sour note to the customer just over the horizon of tomorrow. Or the reasons why customers buy product “X” will change. And so should the copy.
Of course we’ve recently come off the largest and longest bull market in all of recorded economic history in a time of explosive population growth. Bull market euphoria still lingers and reverberates in the herd. And bulls and bears, up moods and down moods, swing in big and little ways in overlapping fractal patterns.
But in a big way, it will take time–years–to reach the final bottom before coming back up. Its just that the lemmings are headed for a cliff.
Granted, most readers are not all the way down the sales funnel on buying these forecasts. They think there may be an elephant in the room, but it must be a small elephant … even though the signs of what’s coming are here, like debt, unemployment, M3 shrinkage in the US dollar, and massive speculative building in China.
In any event, many may lean toward hedging their online betting. In the US, affiliates and providers of products and services with perceived health benefits to aging baby boomers will be more likely to find a hungry market … as Dent reminds us. But luxury products will probably decline in popularity. Ostentation will be out.
Dent went on to suggest services that help debtors reduce their interest rates or overall debt. Or I might add that home security devices are more likely to scratch the bear market itch. Online marketing trainers may be advised to accent the security of an added income stream rather than the blue water and bikini lifestyle it may afford. Popular clothing style will show less skin and be more color-neutral.
Calming beverages may be more popular than energy-boosting drinks … even sugar is less popular in bear markets. Stress management ideas may gain a new edginess. Local (whether geographical or not) may be trusted more than what’s outside the circled wagons. Trust may be harder to earn and easier to lose. The ideal dating mate of 2012 may look and feel less hot, but more solidly reliable.
What would a copywriter write if banks started going bankrupt … all over? What do people want who are losing their homes in foreclosure? If a person can’t afford college, what alternative training can one offer to enable her to reach her goals? How will people want to entertain themselves when they are angry or afraid? What kind of music will they like?
The niche markets we choose to enter today will ideally anticipate tomorrow’s mass moods. The emotional hot buttons we push in our copy will too.
Believe me, I hope the forecast is wrong. And when marketing to stampeding humanity, it is best to think like them. They are not terribly bearish yet. But sometimes entrepreneurs must stick their heads above the herd to see where we’re headed.
Tags: economic trends
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